I don't think you are overthinking it at all, IMO. Depending on manufacturer, there could be rather large differences between 14 and 15 pound specs.
This an article I wrote as I recently switched myself from 15 to 14 due to a recurring bicep injury:
http://tamerbowling.com/bowlingball-14-vs-15-pound/I have been testing this for 6 months now. Here's an example. When I threw a 15 Hy-Road, it was my favorite ball, period. 2.57 and .046 for 15 vs 2.58 and .037 for 14. I'm actually surprised how different the ball reactions are with the same layout. With the 14, I get very little midlane read and very little backend reaction. With the 15, I had great midlane read and a boomy and strong backend. They look nothing alike for me. With the 14, it's the weakest in the arsenal as compared to the 15 which was just above middle. That's a massive difference.
I don't think there is any ball in Storm/Roto lineup with less than 2.52 RG in 14 and that is unfortunate in my opinion.
Now I'm experimenting with different balls and reactions. You've got to consider that your speed may increase and your balance of speed to revs will change a little. With that in mind, core specs are important and layouts are important. Obviously surface is a given and like someone mentioned, you may use surface to "slow" the ball down and get it to read better.
My biggest struggle with the switch is I have a hard time getting my equipment to get into a roll. I used to be able to use large angle sums. Now, I need to drop them down to 90.