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Author Topic: Another 900 series Friday...  (Read 4002 times)

Russell

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Another 900 series Friday...
« on: April 22, 2012, 11:46:56 AM »
Another 900 bowled in CA....
 
So what would happen if in golf the pros kept playing 7400+yd courses and all local clubs were changed to Par 3's?....wonder if people would still care about golf very much.  I mean would anyone appreciate a pro shooting 65 if everyone and their brother that could hit it in play could shoot 70?


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txbowler

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Re: Another 900 series Friday...
« Reply #16 on: April 23, 2012, 12:52:05 PM »
Interesting comments:
 
However, let's compare apples to apples:
 
The perfect game mentioned in baseball in an earlier post was done in PROFESSIONAL baseball.  Against professional hitters in a professional ballpark.
 
Their has never been a 900 series bowled on the equal of PROFESSIONAL bowling which is a sport shot or PBA pattern.
 
Now, on the opposite side, yes there have been several 900 series bowled.  But still, out of the billions of series that have been bowled on the easiest of conditions across the country using the ever advancing ball technology, there are only what; less than 20 perfect 900 series.
 
So yes, times have changed.
 
Before 1990, you had a 1 (Glenn Allison) in 100 trillion chance at a perfect 900
 
After 1990, you have a 15 in 1 billion chance at a perfect 900.
 
 Please excuse my rounding on the number of series bowled. 
 
But I think you get the point.  Even with the easiest THS in the history of bowling, and the most powerful balls in the history of bowling, you have approximately a  0.0000001% chance of throwing a 900 every time you start a series.  GOOD LUCK.
 



JOE FALCO

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Re: Another 900 series Friday...
« Reply #17 on: April 23, 2012, 01:06:43 PM »

Excellent TEX .. tell it as it is ...

RIP Thongprincess/Sawbones!

Steven

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Re: Another 900 series Friday...
« Reply #18 on: April 23, 2012, 01:21:32 PM »
Amen txbowler. Looking at a 900 series in terms of mathematical odds puts the whole question in perspective. Even on cake. 
 



txbowler wrote on 4/23/2012 10:52 AM:
Even with the easiest THS in the history of bowling, and the most powerful balls in the history of bowling, you have approximately a  0.0000001% chance of throwing a 900 every time you start a series.  GOOD LUCK.



LuckyLefty

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Re: Another 900 series Friday...
« Reply #19 on: April 23, 2012, 02:35:27 PM »
I would think that many/some of the 900 bowlers are on this site.

 

To clear up any impression that I don't admire anyone that throws an 900, 850, or 800!  WOW!  I commend your accomplishment, I have done none of those things.  Though I fully believe I will!

 

For the 900 shooters I applaud the fact that before you shot it....you PROBABLY believed, "I am the likely guy to do it!"  Or a version of it...."Some night...."

 

Since the first one was shot about what(30 ) years ago 900s were being achieved at a rate of 1 every 1.5 years, this millions and millions of games thrown every year by all bowlers all over the world.  Men and woman, lefty and righty, average, above average, and truly superior bowlers the elite.  Is the total now up to about 22?

 

The fact is, the club of bowlers capable of series of over 800 each year is very small.  Their  chance of doing it is very high each night when they walk in to a league bowling center with a typical league crown while is not likely that any average bowler in a house will do so at all.   In fact most of the elite bowlers I know have between 1 and 3 of 800s  each year.   Some with even more depending on how often they bowl.

 

So the focus should only be on  the elite....Their striking ability and percentage on a top hat is the only factor that should come in to play!  Forget the others, they are not going to do it!  The statistics are astronomical that they will ever come close to an 800.  But the elite, well that is a different story their statistics and percentages are much better of throwing these elite series.

 

Regardless, as I predicted over 5 years ago the number of 900s shot each year will probably continue to go up each year.  As I mentioned in previous posts to have two in a couple week span in this country does not really surprise me, though I think it is great!  Whether coverstock, oils, lighter pins, livelier sidewalls, shallower gutters,  better teaching, or improving belief systems.  Whatever the factors that there are it will not surprise me that we see, somewhere in the not so distant future 15 a year across the world  Then in the future across the world maybe some year 50 in a year!

 

Much like the 4 minute mile!  At one time a perceived unthinkable.  Now to run a 4 minute mile you are an elite performer, maybe not a world champion or olympic champion but an ELITE athlete.  So it is with 800 to 900 series.  Only our elite are doing them!  

 

Often the possiblity and difference between these megaseries the 86X and above to the 900 is only carry, luck, oil conditions etc.

 

To the elite!  May their outstanding accomplishments continue to improve!

 

With the highest regards for them.

 

Luckylefty

 

 


It takes Courage to have Faith, and Faith to have Courage.

James M. McCurley, New Orleans, Louisiana
 
Edited by LuckyLefty on 4/23/2012 at 12:39 PM
It takes Courage to have Faith, and Faith to have Courage.

James M. McCurley, New Orleans, Louisiana

Russell

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Re: Another 900 series Friday...
« Reply #20 on: April 23, 2012, 06:45:46 PM »
50 years ago these same conversations were being had around the 800 series...they were rare...only a few per year....
 
Where are we now?
 
Let's fast forward 30 years to when the guy splits high scratch series 2 ways with a 900 in his league.  Who will take bowling seriously if we get to that point?
 
There has to be a line in the sand....


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AlBundy33

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Re: Another 900 series Friday...
« Reply #21 on: April 23, 2012, 07:00:55 PM »
+1......and I would dare to say even up until about 30 years ago when Glenn Allison shot the original 900 (though ABC rejected it) that shooting 800 was quite an achievement.
 
Russell wrote on 4/23/2012 4:45 PM:
50 years ago these same conversations were being had around the 800 series...they were rare...only a few per year....
 
Where are we now?
 
Let's fast forward 30 years to when the guy splits high scratch series 2 ways with a 900 in his league.  Who will take bowling seriously if we get to that point?
 
There has to be a line in the sand....


Little known fact:  In Russian "Hope" and "Change" translate to "Tax" and "Spend"


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LuckyLefty

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Re: Another 900 series Friday...
« Reply #22 on: April 23, 2012, 11:05:34 PM »
800 is still a great series and very rarely thrown by anyone except an elite!

 

Regards,

 

Luckylefty


It takes Courage to have Faith, and Faith to have Courage.

James M. McCurley, New Orleans, Louisiana
It takes Courage to have Faith, and Faith to have Courage.

James M. McCurley, New Orleans, Louisiana

Russell

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Re: Another 900 series Friday...
« Reply #23 on: April 23, 2012, 11:41:41 PM »
Edited for a conversation had 50 years ago....
 
LuckyLefty wrote on 4/23/2012 9:05 PM:
700 is still a great series and very rarely thrown by anyone except an elite!

 

Regards,

 

Luckylefty


It takes Courage to have Faith, and Faith to have Courage.

James M. McCurley, New Orleans, Louisiana


Little known fact:  In Russian "Hope" and "Change" translate to "Tax" and "Spend"

pba300900

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Re: Another 900 series Friday...
« Reply #24 on: April 24, 2012, 08:35:06 AM »
I know someone made a comment on this already but just for fact, more than half of the perfect games in MLB have been thrown in the last 30 or so years. There also was a break in perfect games from 1922 to 1956. Hardly "spread out pretty evenly". The balls and bats may look the same but they are not made the way they used to be or out of the same material.



Russell wrote on 4/23/2012 9:27 AM:
That's not even close to the same thing....

 

21 perfect games in baseball over 120 years....spread out pretty evenly.  The game is using the same ball, same bats, and same dimensions...

 

21 perfect series in bowling over 120 years (ALL OF WHICH CAME IN THE LAST 15)....Using TOTALLY different balls...TOTALLY different pins....TOTALLY different lane conditions...

 

Sorry just doesn't make any sense....800 series were almost unheard of 50 years ago....now in my mixed league with about 10 people averaging 205 or better there were 3 this season.


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txbowler

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Re: Another 900 series Friday...
« Reply #25 on: April 24, 2012, 12:17:41 PM »
 Who do you want to "take bowling seriously"? 
 
The mainstream public bowler, the mainstream public in general?  If that is your long term goal, I wish you all the luck in the world.  I think you'll have better luck banging your head against a brick wall.
  
99% of all competitive bowlers know the difference.  And a majority of league bowlers know the difference.
 
 
Russell wrote on 4/23/2012 4:45 PM:
50 years ago these same conversations were being had around the 800 series...they were rare...only a few per year....
 
Where are we now?
 
Let's fast forward 30 years to when the guy splits high scratch series 2 ways with a 900 in his league.  Who will take bowling seriously if we get to that point?
 
There has to be a line in the sand....


Little known fact:  In Russian "Hope" and "Change" translate to "Tax" and "Spend"



txbowler

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Re: Another 900 series Friday...
« Reply #26 on: April 24, 2012, 12:28:55 PM »
I agree that 800 has become a lot easier score to obtain over the past 20 years, however, mathematically speaking, the number of 900's has not.
 
millions and millions of series bowled - 21-900 series.
 
They would need to make the lanes 1 million times easier than they are now for a bowler to have a .1% chance of throwing a 900 series, and yet posters are predicting 2 people splitting high series awards for a pair of 900s in the same league.
 
A bowler in a league throws 34 series a year.  You are predicting that 2 bowlers will shoot 900 in the same league?  So balls and lane conditions will become so easy in our future that 900s become a 1/34 chance for the elite bowler? 
 
 Wow
Russell wrote on 4/23/2012 4:45 PM:
50 years ago these same conversations were being had around the 800 series...they were rare...only a few per year....
 
Where are we now?
 
Let's fast forward 30 years to when the guy splits high scratch series 2 ways with a 900 in his league.  Who will take bowling seriously if we get to that point?
 
There has to be a line in the sand....


Little known fact:  In Russian "Hope" and "Change" translate to "Tax" and "Spend"



Russell

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Re: Another 900 series Friday...
« Reply #27 on: April 24, 2012, 01:33:16 PM »
Let's look at history....50 years ago did we imagine that leagues would have multiple 800s (mixed leagues)?  Did we imagine there would be bowlers in their early 30s with 100+ 300 games?  I'm just looking at the trend....why would the curve stop here?  In 10 years we may have oils that don't move at all....how hard would it be to just find a line and camp out?  I'm not saying it's easy....or ever will be.  800 isn't easy today...but it's a LOT more common than 50 years ago....so why won't it be the same 50 years from now?
 
We're getting closer to that all the time....
txbowler wrote on 4/24/2012 10:28 AM:
I agree that 800 has become a lot easier score to obtain over the past 20 years, however, mathematically speaking, the number of 900's has not.
 
millions and millions of series bowled - 21-900 series.
 
They would need to make the lanes 1 million times easier than they are now for a bowler to have a .1% chance of throwing a 900 series, and yet posters are predicting 2 people splitting high series awards for a pair of 900s in the same league.
 
A bowler in a league throws 34 series a year.  You are predicting that 2 bowlers will shoot 900 in the same league?  So balls and lane conditions will become so easy in our future that 900s become a 1/34 chance for the elite bowler? 
 
 Wow
Russell wrote on 4/23/2012 4:45 PM:
50 years ago these same conversations were being had around the 800 series...they were rare...only a few per year....
 
Where are we now?
 
Let's fast forward 30 years to when the guy splits high scratch series 2 ways with a 900 in his league.  Who will take bowling seriously if we get to that point?
 
There has to be a line in the sand....


Little known fact:  In Russian "Hope" and "Change" translate to "Tax" and "Spend"




Little known fact:  In Russian "Hope" and "Change" translate to "Tax" and "Spend"

txbowler

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Re: Another 900 series Friday...
« Reply #28 on: April 24, 2012, 02:02:04 PM »
I agree it's easier but not that much easier.
 
If I remember correctly, another poster somewhere in this forum or another posted there were 2.3 million members of USBC last year.  And just for math I'll assume the average is 2 leagues per member (not idea how close that is to accurate).
 
So 2.3 million times 68 (34 sets a year x 2 leagues) =  156,400,000 series bowled last year.
 
 Not sure how many 800 series were bowled last year, but I'll use 20,000 as a guess.
 
156400000/20000 =  7820
 
So for every 7820 series bowled across America, one 800 is bowled.
 
So every time you step on the lanes you have a  0.00001278 chance of throwing a 800.
 
 So, if the current scoring conditions mathematically get 10000 times easier than they are today, you will still only have a 1% chance of throwing a 800.
 
Now of course for a higher average bowler, the percentages would be different and higher but still way less than 1%.
 
Yes it is easier than it used to be, but it is still very very very hard. 
 
Russell wrote on 4/24/2012 11:33 AM:
Let's look at history....50 years ago did we imagine that leagues would have multiple 800s (mixed leagues)?  Did we imagine there would be bowlers in their early 30s with 100+ 300 games?  I'm just looking at the trend....why would the curve stop here?  In 10 years we may have oils that don't move at all....how hard would it be to just find a line and camp out?  I'm not saying it's easy....or ever will be.  800 isn't easy today...but it's a LOT more common than 50 years ago....so why won't it be the same 50 years from now?
 
We're getting closer to that all the time....
txbowler wrote on 4/24/2012 10:28 AM:
I agree that 800 has become a lot easier score to obtain over the past 20 years, however, mathematically speaking, the number of 900's has not.
 
millions and millions of series bowled - 21-900 series.
 
They would need to make the lanes 1 million times easier than they are now for a bowler to have a .1% chance of throwing a 900 series, and yet posters are predicting 2 people splitting high series awards for a pair of 900s in the same league.
 
A bowler in a league throws 34 series a year.  You are predicting that 2 bowlers will shoot 900 in the same league?  So balls and lane conditions will become so easy in our future that 900s become a 1/34 chance for the elite bowler? 
 
 Wow
Russell wrote on 4/23/2012 4:45 PM:
50 years ago these same conversations were being had around the 800 series...they were rare...only a few per year....
 
Where are we now?
 
Let's fast forward 30 years to when the guy splits high scratch series 2 ways with a 900 in his league.  Who will take bowling seriously if we get to that point?
 
There has to be a line in the sand....


Little known fact:  In Russian "Hope" and "Change" translate to "Tax" and "Spend"




Little known fact:  In Russian "Hope" and "Change" translate to "Tax" and "Spend"



Russell

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Re: Another 900 series Friday...
« Reply #29 on: April 24, 2012, 02:25:46 PM »
I never once said 800 was easy....you're preaching to the choir.  I'm just saying that it's easier compared to 50 years ago.  Look up the number of 800s in 1980 when there were just shy of 5 MILLION league bowlers.  ...and saying that trend shows no sign of slowing.  With how far scoring has come in 50 years is it more logical to assume the curve to continue or slow down?
 
This article is from 2002 and talks about the exponential increase in 300 games....
 


Little known fact:  In Russian "Hope" and "Change" translate to "Tax" and "Spend"

Bowl_Freak

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Re: Another 900 series Friday...
« Reply #30 on: April 24, 2012, 04:28:53 PM »
 How does averaging 250+ compare to series. And seeing how hard it was for the 261+ avg Jeff Carter did years ago. Right now you may get only a handful of averages over 250 per year nationwide. So in comparison, how does Jeff Carters 261 compare.

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