It could be a variety of things.  Targeting at the breakpoint is a good idea, especially on flatter, more challenging oil patterns, but I like to target by using an imaginary line drawn with my eyes from the arrows TO the breakpoint. What this method of targeting does is:

1. It "tells" me what my ball is doing BEFORE it gets to the breakpoint (is it reading the the lanes too early or too late)?

2. It minimizes the tendency to want to pitch the ball  out to the breakpoint (which causes "grab" and excess muscle in the swing, along with directional problems).

3. By picking an initial target that is closer to me and by carefully aligning my body
 in the direction of my intended target TRAJECTORY, I find that I minimize any excess head/body movement during my approach and delivery, and I become much more consistent in repeating shots.

Also, if you are using a hard plastic ball for most of your spares, targeting closer v. targeting at the breakpoint will almost always yield you better results because the ball will follow a much straighter path down the lane that will your strike ball.

Summertime is the right time to work out any kinks you might have in your game.

Best of luck to you.