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Author Topic: AVERAGES ARE MEANINGLESS  (Read 13601 times)

ccrider

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AVERAGES ARE MEANINGLESS
« on: August 15, 2012, 12:47:59 PM »
     I bowled on a "modified" U.S. Open Pattern last week. The ratio outside was actually 2 to 1. It did not matter because the volume of oil was so high until it was impossible to play outside of 10.   The shot was punishing. I bowled 11 games. High game 209, low game 129. The shot was much tougher than the USBC Open shot in Louisiana.

     Everything mattered. Ball speed, release, target--- miss any one and you had no chance of striking.

     The 209 game (5th game) I did have the front five. Five perfect shots. But that's about all I can say I did good for 11 games. The rest was a lesson.

     All that said, it is clear to me that are bowling scores in league bear little to no relationship to are ability to repeat shots. By manipulating the lane conditions, one can score at will, while in the house next door with a more difficult shot, the scores are lower but odds are the bowlers will be better in the long run.

    There should be some way of addressing this inequity. I wish I had the opportunity to practice regularly on a tough shot where you get true feedback about how you throw the ball. I talked the the manager of the center and he told me that he had put the shot out on two lanes for several weeks. Several of the 220+ bowlers struggled to break a 200 game, and some bowled double digit games. That was some consolation, but not much. You really do not know how inconsistent you throw it until you get on a shot with flat, or almost flat oil.

CC

 

Impending Doom

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Re: AVERAGES ARE MEANINGLESS
« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2012, 01:03:41 PM »
CC,

I totally agree. You should look up my post "Sport" bowling should die. I addressed that all in that, and there was like 13 pages of back and forth.

I think it's awesome for bowling. Make it all tough. I bowled an ABT tournament this weekend, and they put out winding road, which isn't too tough, but I bowled the 3rd squad where there was no reoiling. I could tell that people were BURNING a hole between 10 and 15. There was either up 5, or swinging 23 to 12 at the breakpoint. Not much forgiveness, and it was awesome.

Lesson I learned? Next ABT tournament, bowl before the people shimwreck you lol.

900DJ

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Re: AVERAGES ARE MEANINGLESS
« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2012, 03:59:23 PM »
Yeah I think if a tournament is going to use your ths league average then it should be a ths pattern.  For modified patterns or sport shots they should use a sport shot league average.

Aloarjr810

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Re: AVERAGES ARE MEANINGLESS
« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2012, 04:12:37 PM »
Well maybe they could use something like Slowinski's International Bowling Skill Score Number.
a method to evaluate a bowler's overall skill level (versatility, accuracy, power, repeatability & knowledge).

http://bowlingknowledge.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=176&Itemid=51
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Stan

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Re: AVERAGES ARE MEANINGLESS
« Reply #4 on: August 15, 2012, 10:15:23 PM »
League Average is only the average that you have for that particular house on that particular night for that particular league.  Its just a comparison on how you measue up to the other bowlers in YOUR league.  To compare averages from house to house or even league to league means nothing.  Even in the same house, your average can vary from league to league.

Not sure what else tournaments can use for entry average, if its a handicap tournament.  A potential truer average might be a composite average of all leagues and not just your highest average.

Sport leagues are a bit different.  I bowled in 2 PBA leagues in different houses.  Each pattern played different in both houses.  Different lane suface, different oil machine and different oil.  Some sport leagues play easy and others very hard.

So, I totally agree, that averages are meaningless

Bowling 300 900

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Re: AVERAGES ARE MEANINGLESS
« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2012, 10:24:21 PM »
It's your recreational average and nothing more than that.   Those who want to bowl recreation can have their recreational average and that is fine.   

The more people like yourself who want the challenge and take the challenge the better.

Most people would quit and go back to being high on the recreational pecking order.

Keep working hard on your game and accept the challenge.

Steven

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Re: AVERAGES ARE MEANINGLESS
« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2012, 09:29:16 AM »
I wouldn't go so far as saying averages are "meaningless". In almost all cases, a 230 THS bowler is going to out perform a 200 THS bowler, regardless of house or condition. That goes for PBA/Sport patterns as well. 
 
There's no question the flatter patterns will expose weaknesses, regardless of THS ability. Anyone who has an opportunity to bowl a sport shot league during the summers is a fool not to take advantage.   

Cornerpin

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Re: AVERAGES ARE MEANINGLESS
« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2012, 11:30:44 AM »
I wouldn't go so far as saying averages are "meaningless". In almost all cases, a 230 THS bowler is going to out perform a 200 THS bowler, regardless of house or condition. That goes for PBA/Sport patterns as well. 
 
There's no question the flatter patterns will expose weaknesses, regardless of THS ability. Anyone who has an opportunity to bowl a sport shot league during the summers is a fool not to take advantage.   

Very good point.  The THS average may be well inflated but it does show how well a bowler can repeat shots to an "area" and more than that carry.

Impending Doom

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Re: AVERAGES ARE MEANINGLESS
« Reply #8 on: August 16, 2012, 11:52:55 AM »
Playing Devil's advocate here... What if I averaged 200 in a brickhouse, known for a rough THS, and went to a cake house and averaged 230? Am I the better bowler because I killed the easy house shot, or because I have to be much better with my execution and moves on the brickhouse shot?

milorafferty

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Re: AVERAGES ARE MEANINGLESS
« Reply #9 on: August 16, 2012, 12:03:33 PM »
With the replies from Steven and Cornerpin, I just had a thought on how USBC could come up with rating that did have meaning.

Why not use the information reported to USBC by the leagues AND tournaments to create a rating number for a bowler instead of using the average?

There would need some fine tuning of course, but a quick basis could work like this;

Rank the bowler as 1-100 based on the overall house average/overall league average. So if the bowler had the top average in a given house/league, then they would get a 100. The ratings could be then be averaged across all houses/leagues to get the bowlers overall rating. There could be some checks and balances put in place to remove the anomalies that tend to pop up and to help prevent the inevitable sandbagger who knows how to work the system.

Of course this system would not be perfect, but it would level out some of the differences between bowlers from high scoring houses and low scoring houses.
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Steven

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Re: AVERAGES ARE MEANINGLESS
« Reply #10 on: August 16, 2012, 12:28:20 PM »

Playing Devil's advocate here... What if I averaged 200 in a brickhouse, known for a rough THS, and went to a cake house and averaged 230? Am I the better bowler because I killed the easy house shot, or because I have to be much better with my execution and moves on the brickhouse shot?

Doom, there are exceptions to what's generally true for almost everything.
 
The strawman you just outlined has been put out many times in the past. I've been bowling on and off for most of my life, and I can't say I've ever seen the rags to riches (brickhouse to cake) scenario you just presented. Not saying the scenario doesn't exist, but I think it's rare at best.
 
Here is concrete example. I was in a 6-game Kegel sport shot tournament this last weekend. There were about 40 bowlers who ran the whole spectrum of background -- PBA Regional guys, cake 230 THS guys, 200 brickhouse guys, etc. I could have predicted the relative results ahead of time, and at the end there were no surprises. The 200 average guys, regardless of where they came from, were in the bottom tier.
 
I've seen this over and over. That's why I responded to this thread. 

MI 2 AZ

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Re: AVERAGES ARE MEANINGLESS
« Reply #11 on: August 16, 2012, 01:54:52 PM »
With the replies from Steven and Cornerpin, I just had a thought on how USBC could come up with rating that did have meaning.

Why not use the information reported to USBC by the leagues AND tournaments to create a rating number for a bowler instead of using the average?

There would need some fine tuning of course, but a quick basis could work like this;

Rank the bowler as 1-100 based on the overall house average/overall league average. So if the bowler had the top average in a given house/league, then they would get a 100. The ratings could be then be averaged across all houses/leagues to get the bowlers overall rating. There could be some checks and balances put in place to remove the anomalies that tend to pop up and to help prevent the inevitable sandbagger who knows how to work the system.

Of course this system would not be perfect, but it would level out some of the differences between bowlers from high scoring houses and low scoring houses.

A start maybe, but it would not account for houses that have more than one lane pattern for leagues.  A house that uses two different patterns for different leagues (mens vs mixed) or houses that put out a sport shot for only one league that is not sanctioned as a sport league but just as a regular USBC league.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2012, 01:57:08 PM by MI 2 AZ »
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milorafferty

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Re: AVERAGES ARE MEANINGLESS
« Reply #12 on: August 16, 2012, 02:00:52 PM »
A start maybe, but it would not account for houses that have more than one lane pattern for leagues.  A house that uses two different patterns for different leagues (mens vs mixed) or houses that put out a sport shot for only one league that is not sanctioned as a sport league but just as a regular USBC league.

True, that's why it could be calculated based on their league instead of the entire house when a house has multiple patterns used. The house would have to let USBC know if that is the case of course.

My point being that the bowler would be rated against other bowlers on the same conditions over the course of a season or tournament series. The better bowlers will show up at the top of the rankings.
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Pinbuster

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Re: AVERAGES ARE MEANINGLESS
« Reply #13 on: August 16, 2012, 02:17:51 PM »
I think it would be pretty impossible to come up with a rating system.

Without a lot of knowledge of the pattern and general strength of the bowlers.

I bowled in a classic 5 person traveling scratch league for several years before the league folded. This league consisted of a several PBA National and Regional players as well as a good number of current/former Wichita State and Kansas Newman collegiate players.

We bowled second shift at all the houses we rotated thru. I can't tell you the number of times we would come in and some of the better league bowlers in front of us would tell us how tough they were that night.

The net result was most nights this league would produce several honor scores and the league average would be 210+ for the night.

In the past I have bowled in several houses that simply didn't allow good scoring. But virtually all of those houses have closed over the years and with synthetic lanes and modern lane machines most houses have a playable area somewhere.

Some of the houses in the Wichita area have a little better carry than others but all give you a pretty easy opportunity to get to the pocket.

And yes averages are pretty meaningless unless there was a pattern rating with them. 

trash heap

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Re: AVERAGES ARE MEANINGLESS
« Reply #14 on: August 16, 2012, 03:07:41 PM »
Are honor scores meaningless?
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