There are so many variables that will have an effect on pin carry that the physics behind it can get quite complex. Almost everything you can think of will have an effect on pin carry. These variables include, but are not limited to:
Ball weight
Pocket entry angle
Pin weight
Ball speed (both, linear and angular speeds)-- both are important!
Pin speed ( which is determined by the 2 ball speeds AND the what's called the "Coefficient of restitution" of the ball pins,and sideboards).
The ball's momentum [ both linear and angular, which is equal to the ball's weight TIMES speed (for linear momentum)].
The amount of TIME the ball is in contact with the pins (it's called "impulse")-- the one quantity that is often overlooked, but it is an extremely important factor.
The amount of friction between the ball and the pin deck.
The above factors are largely affected by the bowler's release style. Different release styles will affect all of the above variables to widely different degrees.
However in in GENERAL, a HEAVIER ball will knock down more pins than will a lighter ball. Increased entry angle can make up for some of what is lost when going to a lighter ball, but there is a limit to this advantage. That limit will depend in large part on the other factors listed above.
In the end, it is much easier to let your eyes be your guide as to what ball weight works best for you where it comes to creating optimal pin carry ( I am not taking physical limitations into consideration).
I am a speed-dominant stroker. As such, I have tried different ball weights
(from 14# to 16#). For me, the jury has long been in on what ball weight generally knocks down more pins for my particular style--- 16#.