I know of a couple of bowlers in my area who I would consider as PBA material, yet only one or two of them even competes in Regionals. Actually, 3 stand out in my mind, with one of them already having won several regional events, one of them having nearly won the Mini-Eliminator a few months back, and the third one doesn't even dabble in the bigger stuff (unusual for a 240+ lefty, who primarily uses an old urethane Gyro!!!).
I agree that 200 seems kind of low for a PBA material number, but then again I can walk into several houses within a 60 mile radius that nobody carries a 200 average in. So, maybe 200 isn't such a bad number after all...but, I know of a ton of 220+ averagers who wouldn't stand a chance in the PBA environment, yet I know of a couple of low 200 averagers who just might stand a chance against the big guns. Basically, you really have to look at each one on a case by case basis, and the actual average doesn't tell the whole story.
It's really tough to set down a specific guideline on what it takes to be PBA material. The only thing that I'm sure of there is that I'll never hold a PBA card, unless I just care to donate to the cause! Instead of running with the big dogs, I stay on the porch.