BallReviews
General Category => Miscellaneous => Topic started by: txbowler on October 29, 2015, 05:17:28 PM
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Fill in The Blank - I enter a tournament or brackets when I think I have an ____ % chance of winning?
With the new division added to the Open championships, there has been a lot of discussion from people re-assessing whether or not to enter brackets or bowl at all in the "elite" division because all the small fish have been moved to the new "standard" division. It will be tougher to make money as a lot of people speculate there will be less brackets per squad in the 210+ division and now better competition.
Seen comments such as "I won't be the small fish in the pond" or "I won't give my money away".
That leads to the above question. When you enter, what's your confidence level?
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For me, my bowling gambling money is more to do with how much month I have left in my monthly budget. Just because I make a lot of money than the average person, doesn't mean I have money to spend. With that said, I don't really care who I bowl against in a scratch bracket, it's the handicap brackets I worry about most.
Many guys who make 30 - 40K a year have a lot of money to spend on tourney's and brackets - and gamble till sun up. lol I wish I lived with mom and dad, or have 8 people helping me pay the mortgage. lol
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I'll also bite. 0% - 100%.
The whole controversy about not wanting to be the smallest fish in the pond .. well, it reminds me of not wanting to be willing to take on a challenge. Sure, I may go up against 220+ average bowlers with me sitting at 210 - 214, but personally I stick to an old adage: Losing isn't the opposite of winning; quitting is the opposite of winning. In other words, winners never quit, and quitters never win.
I could go up against a Bill O'Neill in a bracket, knowing that any bowler could beat any other bowler at any time (read: Any Given Sunday). Yes, he could easily wipe the floor with me, but I would never know if that would happen if I didn't try. Besides, I'd learn a lot more about myself and what I need to work on with that pattern if I lost, and surprise myself if I won.
So in all, it's all above the shoulders. If I think I can perform, then I'll give it my best and perform. If I don't, then I won't take the chance. But because there would be more and bigger fish in the pond doesn't mean I would give up my chance to try.
BL.
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I play brackets often where there are better bowlers than I. However, in those tournaments, I'm not the smaller fish in the pool but more in the middle. If the average cut-off rises to the point where my odds of losing a couple of thousand verses winning a few hundred doesn't work at least somewhat in my favor, I won't play, it's that simple.
And the guys who are essentially (or actually) pro bowlers and rely on the rest of us to provide you with easy money can go pound sand if you don't like my choice. I can always just stop bringing in multiple teams and take more money out of the prize fund as well.
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...pocket full of money
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If I'm feeling good about my financial situation, and it's tough, and scratch, I'll push the all button. Handicap? GTFO.
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If I'm feeling good about my financial situation, and it's tough, and scratch, I'll push the all button. Handicap? GTFO.
Ditto
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I have enjoyed the news of USBC actually doing something right for a change in helping Joe Bowler remain relevant in National Tournaments for a little longer. At least they will not feel like they are being taken advantage of any longer for say maybe 5 years. Which will be what it may take for those of you whining about the lower average Joe getting a new Division. Since I've had no book average for the last 4 years I can come back and establish with a polyester ball. Punch up a couple new Average Inflators prior to Nationals and CLEAN UP in the New STANDARD Division.
Money in the Bank.
Don't cry. I've awalys taken 2 grand with me to Nationals every year and gone home with no less than 5 grand. Looking to double my take home. Nice vacation money.
How funny it has been that those of you who were not opposed to bowling against Professionals in another Topic are crying the most here since you won't have those lower average Joe's to beat up on in brackets.
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Awww, poor babies, ain't gonna have as much easy money with the new division...
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I'll enter brackets likely still, though probably to a lesser extent b/c I do feel I have lost some edge with the re-alignment as well. I have no issue bowling scratch against bowlers of a greater ability than mine........none at all..........but mathematically I will have less of an edge on expected value. I will put up some cash in Vegas brackets but I think overall the action will be down.
When I enter brackets it's simply an investment in myself. I cannot control how good or who I'm bowling against. I just see how I finished in the end.
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I think some people are looking at this whole thing from the wrong perspective. I'm not sure it's about people being scared by the other bowlers. Personally, I think it would be cool to see myself lined up against a Bill O'Neil, Walter Ray, PDW, etc. in a bracket. Well, at least it would be cool until the results were posted because I'd probably lose those battles 999 times out of 1000. Still, if I decide to cut back on brackets going forward, it's not because I'm scared of the other guys in that division. If I do so, it's because I know that I don't belong in that division.
Over the past four years, I've averaged 218.25 bowling one league in one house one time per week. Over the last four years at the Open Championships, I've averaged 184.97. That clearly shows that I don't belong in that upper division against the true 210 plus bowlers of the world.
Now, I'm not saying that as a complaint. Heck, if anything, put it on me for not driving out of my area and finding a house that puts down a tougher pattern. Still, whatever the reason, does it make a whole lot of sense for me to throw a bunch of my money out there to compete against guys who are typically 25 pins per game better than I am? Probably not. Now, I only spend roughly $50 per event in brackets anyhow, so I will probably continue doing so going forward; however, if I were a guy who maxed out, there is no way I'd do that anymore. It's not being scared; it's just being smart.
I'm not scared of other bowlers. Heck, if we're bowling on a house shot, I'll put my money up against anyone because I know that I have the ability to be competitive in that environment, but the Open Championships isn't contested on a house shot (and that's good). In the OC environment, I'm a pretender at best. Sure, there will be others right there with me due to inflated house averages across the country. Still, it bears mentioning.
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when I have the money lol
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IF it's about an honest chance at winning a few bucks can you blame them? Do you go to a casino and play the game where the house has a huge advantage? No. You look for the ones where you have a better chance. If you average 210 you were middle of the pack average wise. You were better than the 190 guys but below the 230 guys so you got in X brackets. Now you're closer to the bottom so you get in a few less brackets. Makes perfect sense. Now if you were the guy who averaged 210 on an unsanctioned sport league or other tough shot and entered max brackets knowing it was easy money and now you're pussing out because now you're on a level playing field, then shame on you.
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Exactly my point Nails, Gene and GTx2.
It's not that my money is "scared", it's that my money is not stupid. I know my place in the bowling world. It's the same reason I don't put a few thousand dollars a year in the lottery, the odds are not in my favor.
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In my original post, I didn't mean specifically in the open tournament, I meant more in general.
Do you just look at a tournament flyer and said, cool, I'm bowling?
Do you arrive at a tournament with $200 for brackets and just enter, or do you walk in with your $200 and notice that the quality of bowler is a bit better than expected and maybe only enter $100 worth.
For example here in north Texas, there's a tournament in Tulsa called the GTO (Greater Tulsa Open) that lots of bowlers make the trip for. On the team portion of the tournament, there can be 300-500 brackets on a squad. There were 501 last year on the squad before mine. As you walk in, you discover DJ Archer is bowling that squad. Do you enter as many as you planned or do you back off? For the record. He was in all 501, made 500 finals, and won them all.
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In my original post, I didn't mean specifically in the open tournament, I meant more in general.
Do you just look at a tournament flyer and said, cool, I'm bowling?
Do you arrive at a tournament with $200 for brackets and just enter, or do you walk in with your $200 and notice that the quality of bowler is a bit better than expected and maybe only enter $100 worth.
For example here in north Texas, there's a tournament in Tulsa called the GTO (Greater Tulsa Open) that lots of bowlers make the trip for. On the team portion of the tournament, there can be 300-500 brackets on a squad. There were 501 last year on the squad before mine. As you walk in, you discover DJ Archer is bowling that squad. Do you enter as many as you planned or do you back off? For the record. He was in all 501, made 500 finals, and won them all.
In that case, yes, I enter, pay my bracket money and let it ride for good or bad.
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Based upon my skill level, no, I probably don't get in if I notice guys of that caliber. Then again, it also depends on the condition we're bowling on too. As I said before, if we're on a house shot, I know I at least have a shot. If we're on something tough, I would see it as a waste of money to put my money up against a guy like that. It may sound cowardly to some, but I don't make enough $$ to willingly toss it in when I have a minuscule chance of getting anything back.
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Historically I have put 500-700 in brackets at nationals because I felt I had a 75% chance of making money in that field. Local tournaments, if I enter the tournament, which I always do in scratch events, I often don't max out the brackets. Partly if we are on a house shot I consider it more of a crap shoot, and unlike nationals the real money is in the regular prize fund.
As a side note, it is much harder to make good money in nationals brackets than it was a few years ago. Also as a 68 year old guy, I am usually more interested in the senior side. The interesting thing is that it is often as tough to make money in senior brackets as in regular. Also, the low cash score in the senior singles and all events has been higher the last two seasons than in the regular division in Reno. I didn't bowl El Paso, so not sure about it
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I have never been a big bracket guy. I tend to grind out scores in a 20 pin range and that doesn't normally do well in brackets. Plus I just like to compete not gamble so much.
I bowl in a lot of tournaments that my chances of winning are not very high, although I do cash in quite a few.
At nationals I generally will do $100 in senior brackets and have done ok. But like avabob said the senior side is often as tough as the regular division.
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Hey Pinbuster ,
sent you a PM.
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I bowl the greater Tulsa at the end of November every year in a squad that is stacked with A bunch of St. Louis guys I know. I still load up every year. 2 years ago I came out very good . Last year I just broke even or lost a couple hundred. But I still loaded up each year just like I do at nationals every year. But it's all about being confident in yourself, if you go in with the mindset that dj archer is in your squad and is going to beat you, then it probably will happen before the national anthem is done playing.