In all things in life, there are factors that will optimize your chances and there are factors that will minimize them as well. What these factors are is debateable, but without doubt they exist.
To me, "hitting too hard" is an eye test kind of thing. By that, I mean if it looks to an experienced bowler that the pins are getting impacted so hard that they aren't following their maximum trajectory, you probably are "hitting them too hard". Pins flying up, instead of laterally, on impact may be one sign of this.
Physics tells us that E=Mc2. Basically, energy equals mass X speed, so the more speed an object has on impact, the more energy is released upon said impact. If the energy released is in excess of the optimum force needed, then yes, you are indeed "hitting them too hard".
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