So i was in the middle of a test today, and there was a whole bunch of technicle probability stuff in there, which got me thinking back to basic probability and how i could use it to explain why its so frickin hard to bowl 300.
Heres why... ehh... mathamatically speaking...
Say a bowler has a 50% chance of gettin a X. There is twelve shots in a game.
Raise .5 to the power of 12 and you get 0.000244140625. Thats a .00244140625% chance of bowling a 300 in any particular game. Which means you will bowl 1 300 for every 4096 games. If you bowl say 3 games a week it will take you 1365 weeks to bowl a 300... or 26 years. Even if you bowl say 20 games a week its still going to take you the bst part of 205 weeks to bowl one... or close enough to 4 years.
Now say you arnt QUITE at that level, and your X % is marginally lower, and it 45%. Raise .45 to the power of 12 and you get 0.000068952523554931640625 or a .000689% blah blah chance of bowling a 300. That small difference in ability means its now going to take you 14502 games, over 10000 more games, to bowl a 300. At 3 games a week (sorry if this scares the average house bowler), its going to take you, mathamatically speaking, 4684 weeks to bowl a 300..... or 90 years... damn i hope yall started bowling young!! Inversly if you bowl more the figures might sway in your favour a bit... 20 gamers with a 45% chance, your in for a 13-14 year wait.
Thats why it seems so hard. Mathamatically speaking.
good luck and high scoring
matt
