Just curious. Any use this method for your target down lane.

Pattern Length - 31 = the actual target board at the end of the pattern at this distance

Like milo stated, it is a good starting point.  Some also look at where there is a left-right drop off in forward oil pattern, or something like that.

This really depends on the situation.  If it is the Open Championships, then using traditional sport shot estimations should give you some idea.  If it is a local, one day tournament, I would more inclined to see what the track area of that particular center provides.  Takes several consecutive sport shot runs to get the true shot.  (my personal opinion at least)

In regards to the exit point formula (Pattern length - 31= Exit point) which is where the ball exits the pattern, not the breakpoint!, there's a opposing view (from Mo) to "Take the length of the pattern minus 31 rule and shove it. Not accurate."

Which I believe is mainly because the formula doesn't work on short patterns and it's possible to have a  breakpoint back in the oil before the exit point.

So knowing where to find a starting place  for the breakpoint would be more helpful. So we have to look at the forward oil, because forward oil controls the breakpoint location.

Now a way has been put forth on how to find the board the breakpoint is on. By looking at the composite graph of the oil pattern. (you can also find it by looking at the Lane Machine Settings chart)

What you do is look for the highest corners of the red bars on the bar graph and subtract 3. That's the place to start looking for the breakpoint. (But this doesn't tell you how far down the lane it is)

Remember that the loads are applied to the buffer brush, so ALL the forward loads affect the breakpoint.

Here's a example: using Kegel's DEAD MAN’S CURVE 3043 Pattern



In this example the highest red bar is on board 14, so 14-3= 11. That's where you start looking for your breakpoint.


from the Lane Machine Settings chart

Now my thought is not so much to shove the exit point formula, but to look at the situation and see if it would be beneficial if used. Like use the end of pattern minus 31 to give you a starting place, when the only info you have available is the length of the pattern. (just remember that's not the breakpoint, just where the ball exits the pattern)

And also look at how it might be combined with the breakpoint formula.