This post was in another thread related to the actions of Jorge300.

I felt that it deserved a response over here on a seperate post!

By Purdue Paul.

Let's look at this for a neutral point of view first before I state my opinion:

Last year going into the Tournament of Champions, the PBA posts every week with facts and statistics from the tourhttp://www.pba.com/news/features.asp?ID=4509)

Walter Ray Williams was 4th in match play strike percentage with 62.82% which parlayed into an overall average of 223.44.

Now not saying that Robert Mushtare is on the same level as WRW, but what would the chances be that WRW bowls a 900 series.

(.6282) to the 36 power (one for every strike he has to throw) comes out to a 1 in 18,555,576 chance of bowling a 900 series. and that's for WRW the most prolific bowler in PBA history.

Now let's take in account some educated guesses...
I remember reading somewhere that his touring average was right around 212. I will assume that even at his home house his strike percentage is around 57.5% with a 85% spare shooting percentage which is appropriate stats for a 212 average bowler.

so his chances have become 1 to 448,701,572 to bowl a 900 series.

To bowl two that chance becomes 1 to 20,133,310,081,900,000

To bowl three turns to 1 to 9,033,847,885,640,000,000,000,000

Wow that's a lot...what would the chances be greater if it was walter ray you ask...

2 900s: 1 to 34,430,940,947,300
3 900s: 1 to 638,885,949,647,000,000,000

So even for Walter Ray Williams the chances of bowling two 900 series are 34 trillion to 1 on a PBA shot so just saying mushtare is as good on his house shot as WRW is on a PBA shot, I find the three 900s incredible. Lucky lefty if you would like to challenge me on the math or statistics on such feel free to. I have a BS in Chemical Engineering and a MS in mechanical engineering and have taken PLENTY of statistics courses to back this up....

Paul

Paul...

If a fellow graduates from Purdue or PennState these are outstanding institutions...I've said that in the past.  Anyone can check my statements where I laud the esteemed university.  Not necessarily every attendee...do they ALL graduate?  I don't know?

I did not even check your numbers...because I am sure they are probably right on.

I have stated before...any situation that causes a bowler to average under 9 strikes a game almost makes the chance of shooting 900 a virtual impossibility.
To proclaim one bowler will have a 900 if he averages under 240 or even 250 on a particular condition is ludicrous.  Instead the 900 will instead come from a group of bowlers averaging 9 strikes or higher.

I proposed that a group likely to bowl over 900 would be a group averaging over 9 strikes a game or the group of bowlers that throws a series over 750 during the year.  This group of series would on average produce one 900 every 318000 sets(750+ sets)!

Conditions that make 900s unlikely.

Sport Conditions
WTC conditions
PBA conditions
US Open Conditions.

This ties into one of my current thoughts...Norm Dukes sort of 900 accross 2 sets was an unbelievable accomplishment!  I don't typically believe that 900s will be ever shot on difficult conditions.

However if we take bowlers on to a cake situation and they have the type of ball that can take advantage of it!  (A vicious strike ball).  And the bowler can start to average over 10.5 strikes a game.  Then multiple 900s become not just a reality but a probability.

Take him to 11 strikes a game and it becomes a very real possibility.

All the time I hear about Probowlers coming in and averaging near 280 for 10 games in random houses around the country in pot games(usually other lane play).  Harder than bowling by one self which makes transition reading easier. If they just continued bowling they would likely experience a 900 every 25 or so sets(4/100)(if they don't hold themselves back thru the belief it can't be done)


I have stated to get in to these upper strike regions that render 900s possible one needs the following factors to make it as easy as possible.
1. a Vicious strike ball
2. Easy conditions
3. light pins
4. lively sidewalls
5. Readable transitions help(ie only one bowler from each side ie prebowling by yourself)
6. Quiet and calm mental state(match play doesn't help)
7. Believe that one can go to the unthinkable level.


None of these conditions are part of the pro tour where MOST of our great bowlers are.  Bowlers are on difficult conditions, transitions are difficult as often the bowlers are switching lanes with no practice on each new lane.  At no time do I expect bowlers in National championships to be on these type of easy conditions that produce strike ratios in the necessary high range of even 9 out of 12 or higher.

Instead these great bowlers of the PBA tour are frequently in grind it out match play mode conquering the difficult conditions they face and their opponent.

All part of my total summation of what is necessary and why more 900s are not thrown.  Our great bowlers are just not throwing enough sets on cake!  And why should they...it does nothing to help them prepare for the settings that they win money on!  Even when they come home...often their league play is devoted to difficult conditions or focusing on the match at hand and the brackets they want to win!  And frankly if they are not skying into the beyond 9 strikes a game ratio they need...they again are relegated to the group of 1/318,000(9 strikes and over) sets pursuing a 900!

In summary I believe you and I Paul are in agreement...high strike ratios are necessary.  However I believe the Protour conditions render the 900 a statistical aberration for virtually all bowlers.  Also one of the great qualities of today's champions that differs from the qualities of an elite striker is the ability to pick up spares on difficult conditions!  This important ability that Walter Ray for example has in spades...does not factor in to the 900 equation!

We agree on the statistics but we disagree on the assumptions of how many strikes cake and bowling without cross lane play can add to a power players strike ratio in relation to his difficult condition play.
 
REgards,

Luckylefty
PS for the record it was my understanding that Robert Mushtares average for his YABA league ended up near 250 including his regular...non prebowl sets with crosslane play(I have not looked it up and got this from another source).  I also believe he had a traveling league average nearer to 210.  It was not in this mode of even shooting 250 that he shot multiple 900s....it is my estimation that in his practice sessions etc that he did on this very favorable condition for his powerful ball roll that he was averaging probably in the 270 + range or near 280 for protracted practice sessions throwing by himself with no cross lane play etc before he conceived of what he could do!  





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Open the door...see what's possible...and just walk right on through...that's how easy success feels..

Edited on 8/8/2006 7:58 PM

Editing accepted ;-)
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Famous Words said to me:"I may be a magician of carrying but I'm still beating you"  "GO TO YOUR HOME WHY DON'T YOU LIKE YOUR HOME"--said towards a solid 8 pin