Very few bowlers' thumbs are actually round. Of those whose thumbs are round, only a few small percentage will stay round after you put enough pressure on your thumb when you hold the ball. (Please don't tell me there should be no pressure on the thumb. That's a relative term, not an absolute.)
That said, whether you thumb is mostly round and you start off with a round hole and have to bevel/sand the sides OR you start off with an oval thumb hole and have to sand the top to account for your thumb's current shape (maybe callouses), one always has to modify the thumb hole slightly.
Most people, I believe, are better off starting with oval thumb holes or inserts.
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"We get old too fast, and too late, smart."