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Author Topic: Handicap and winning statistics  (Read 2686 times)

janderson

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Handicap and winning statistics
« on: August 15, 2008, 01:47:50 AM »
Found this on the USBC site regarding
handicap and win statistics.

To quote from the article:
quote:

MYTH: At 100% handicap every team has a 50-50 chance of winning.
BUSTED: Even at 100% handicap, as the chart above shows, the higher-average teams or bowlers still have a decided edge. Seventy out of 100 championships still are won by the higher-average team when 100% handicap is used. An exact 50-50 distribution of league championships would result only if a 116% handicap was used.



That contradicts many of the arguments made here at BR as to what the "fair" handicap should be to promote equality in competition.

In my opinion, one important fact left out is that the stats present don't say anything about bowlers that started the league with an average below the median and ended up with an average above the median.  Teams with these types of bowlers are more likely to win regardless of the handicap percentage.
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J.J. "Waterola Kid" Anderson, the bLowling King  : Kill the back row


Edited on 8/15/2008 1:10 PM

 

RyanRPS

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Re: Handicap and winning statistics
« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2008, 10:15:30 AM »
Fair competition is when the person that gets the higher score wins... so if i shoot 210 and a 160 average bowler shoots 200, I still win!!!!

Ryan

janderson

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Re: Handicap and winning statistics
« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2008, 01:12:10 PM »
Agreed, which is why I bowl scratch tournaments. For recreational leagues, many people want to see some parity between teams regardless of talent levels while still bowling with the desired team mates. This "Myth Bust" seems as if the USBC is saying that to be truly fair, handicap should be 116%.

T Brockette

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Re: Handicap and winning statistics
« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2008, 02:00:39 PM »
J,

Nice topic. I have always felt, that even with handicap, the better bowlers won more times than not. But I am in favor of some kind of cap on the number of pins. In my opinion, a bowlers single game score should never be able to go above 300, no matter what the handicap level is.
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Tracy

Bowlingchat.net
Tracy Brockette – Lone Star House Hack

Atochabsh

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Re: Handicap and winning statistics
« Reply #4 on: August 15, 2008, 02:20:20 PM »
What I've seen is in handicap leagues, those teams with improving bowlers are more likely to win. Doesn't matter at what level they are.  If they are improving the team wins in a handicap league.  

 If you give 100% handicap of 200 and you have a dozen bowlers in the league over 200 then they are still going to have the advantage.  Most bowlers are very ignorant about how handicap works.  They bowl in leagues of 80% of 200 individual handicap, where a good dozen bowlers average over 205.  And then they wonder why they can't win.  You have to have the handicap cover the highest average bowler in the league no matter what percentage you go with.  Or you can simply handicap based on the difference between the teams combined averages.

Pinbuster

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Re: Handicap and winning statistics
« Reply #5 on: August 15, 2008, 02:35:58 PM »
If you are a 200+ average bowler bowling in a handicap league with beginners then you get what you deserve.

But in the vast majority of cases one of the high average teams will win a handicap league.

Steven

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Re: Handicap and winning statistics
« Reply #6 on: August 15, 2008, 04:44:46 PM »
quote:
In my opinion, one important fact left out is that the stats present don't say anything about bowlers that started the league with an average below the median and ended up with an average above the median.


janderson gets it.

The USBC completely ignores this aspect in their repeatedly stated handicap position. In handicap leagues with lower average teams that improve through the season, they do have the advantage. This is not conjecture, but fact.

I guess in a handicap situation where everyone is static, their might be some merit to the 100%++ argument, but outside of senior leagues and adult mixed drinking leagues, I haven't seen it.
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"I wonder if Lane#1 really do have something going with this diamond core theory?"  Direct quote from Absolutebowling (tonx) before he lost his mind....

Atochabsh

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Re: Handicap and winning statistics
« Reply #7 on: August 15, 2008, 08:53:40 PM »
Scratch leagues are not a dime a dozen.  Those are handicap leagues.  Most houses if they have one scratch league you are lucky.  And if its an open scratch league (not draft or invitational) you are even luckier.  If you find one that wants bowlers under 210 even more lucky.  Given that, you have one day a week.  So most 200+ average bowlers I know bowl in handicap leagues.  Most are not high enough for the 650 scratch trio type leagues or the Classic drafts.  Today's league environments is a catch all in handicap, or high end scratch leagues.  If you are at 200 you are kind of caught in the middle.  Centers cannot really afford to limit handicap leagues to a minimum average, nor will they cap it at a maximum average.  So there's a wide range of bowlers.  

But most 180 to 200 average bowlers are not going make drastic moves in improvement.  While the beginning bowler will.  One year we had a bowler join and establish at 67 average.  Of course she got better, I think ending the league at over 100.  So that's a 30+ pin improvement.  I don't think you are going to find many 180 to 200 average bowlers that will be able to improve 30 pins in one season.  This team had a huge advantage as she increased her average.  It was years ago, so I cannot remember the end championships.  But I do remember their team was in the roll offs.

Silencer

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Re: Handicap and winning statistics
« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2008, 05:55:46 AM »
I think the best way if you are going to try to make it fair handicap wise is to make the handicap based off the high average in the league. Every week it may change a few mins but then you will always have even handicap.
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And Then...........

I left another 10 pin

J-Rad Lawrence
And Then...........

I left another 10 pin

J-Rad Lawrence