If you are a high-speed-low-rev type of player (as I am), dropping down in ball weight
will often result in poorer pin carry. I dropped from 16# to 15" a few years back due to
advancing age (and knee issues) and I definitely noticed a decline in pin carry, especially on tighter lane conditions and on light pocket hits. Two years ago, I experimented with 14# and the results were even worse. Granted, today's balls are indeed a lot stronger but I still experienced a noticeable decline in pin carry.
Very good analysis. At higher levels of competition, you'll see very few using 14# equipment. Norm Duke doesn't use 16# because it's no more effective that 14#.
A good rule of thumb is to use the heaviest weight you can comfortably handle. There are always unique exceptions where a lighter weight by choice is the better option, but they are exceptions.
However, if you don't have a choice and need to go down in weight due to physical limitations, nothing else matters. Bowl with the appropriate weight and enjoy the game.
You really have to be careful when you discuss a specific bowler based on what you see on TV.
Lets take Norm Duke as an example.
Most times you see him on TV, he's bowled well enough to make the top 5, which means he's not struggling.
Now consider the "new" team events.
Even if he's not bowling well, you get a chance to see him on TV, and he leaves more than his share of weak 10's
You may think the PBA is a scratch event, but it's not. They are constantly changing oil patterns so the same names don't win all of the money.
That's a form of handicapping.
Norm Duke, and then Walter Ray when presented with a condition that favored playing straighter, up the outside, tended to take the title.
When you play straighter, deflection is your enemy. All else being equal, heavier balls deflect less.