First, the scores of the top 20...

 1       Joe Ciccone       Buffalo, N.Y.           36      1846      7884      +684      219.00
2    George Lambert IV    Hamilton, Ontario       36    1964    7861    +661    218.36
3    Thomas Smallwood    Flushing, Mich.       36    1894    7811    +611    216.97
4    Stevie Weber    Chalmette, La.       36    1790    7697    +497    213.81
5    Cassidy Schaub    Ashland, Ohio       36    1758    7683    +483    213.42
6    Tim Mack    Indianapolis       36    1869    7676    +476    213.22
7    Dan MacLelland*    Windsor, Ontario       36    1924    7640    +440    212.22
8    Stuart Williams    England       36    1865    7635    +435    212.08
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9    Daniel Patterson    Buffalo, N.Y.       36    1821    7619    +419    211.64
10    Mason Brantley    Detroit, Mich.       36    1759    7611    +411    211.42
11    Mitch Beasley    Puyallup, Wash.       36    1928    7607    +407    211.31
12    D.J. Archer    Mineral Wells, Texas       36    1900    7597    +397    211.03
13    Anthony LaCaze    Melrose Park, Ill.       36    1810    7580    +380    210.56
14    Bo Goergen    Midland, Mich.       36    1835    7524    +324    209.00
15    Tae-Hwa Jeong*    South Korea       36    1848    7510    +310    208.61
16    Sean Riccardi    Piscataway, N.J.       36    1851    7489    +289    208.03
17    Brian LeClair    Athens, N.Y.       36    1685    7485    +285    207.92
18    Ken Simard    Greenville, S.C.       36    1804    7476    +276    207.67
19    George Frilingos*    Australia       36    1962    7468    +268    207.44
19    Ryan Ciminelli    Cheektowaga, N.Y.       36    1679    7468    +268    207.44


Now, my take:

* Ciccone, Lambert and Smallwood are probably safe. The number to watch is the cut at No. 8, +435. In a typical week, guys who are 100 over the cut line going into the last block stay over the cut. Ciccone, Lambert and Smallwood are all nearly +200. It would take a monumental fail on Shark for any of the three to miss.

* Summarily, anyone -100 to the cut is basically behind a major-league 8-ball at this point. That moves the effective cut to 14 at most, Bo Goergen, who is -124 to the cut. Thus, you've got 10 guys competing for 5 spots.

* Who out of that bunch is vulnerable on Shark? The first answer is any lefty. Of the guys over the cut but out of the top 3, Schaub is technically a lefty but really a two-hander. The means he's likely high-rev (I've never seen him bowl) and thus should be able to overcome the usual pitfalls of a lefty on Shark. The rest over the cut are righties unless MacLelland is a lefty (no info on him). The first lefty under the cut -- assuming ams Tae-Hwa Jeong and George Frilingos are righties -- is Billy Oatman at 21. Goodbye, Billy.

* Of the others above the cut, I've seen Weber and Mack bowl. I would think Mack's game is well-tuned to Shark. Weber used to be exempt, and I like that experience being in his favor. I think both of those guys stay above the line.

* Below the cut and within the 100, three guys look promising due to their experience and/or their rev rates: LeCaze, Beasley and Archer.

Thoughts?

Jess

Edited on 5/30/2009 4:50 PM

I like Beasley's chances, especially on the Shark. He is my pick to break into one of the spots moving on
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My Arsenal:
Rogue Cell (coming soon)
Bounty(4.5 x 4.75 Fresh 1000 Abralon)
Twisted Fury(5 x 4 500 Abralon + Reacta Shine)
Raw Hammer Pain(Leverage 1000 Abralon)
Blue Vibe(5 x 5 4000 Abralon + Reacta Shine)



Edited on 5/30/2009 5:32 PM